According to Gregory Lyons, a senior analyst at iCrossing, Facebook will reach the milestone in August. Using linear regression on date from 2008 until the end of last year, Lyons created the following chart:
In a blog entry, Lyons acknowledges that Facebook’s growth in the U.S. and U.K has slowed or even stopped, but he expects India and Brazil, among other nations, to pick up the slack. “Both are large countries with millions of potential users who have yet to sign up to Facebook,” he writes. “With only 3% of India’s population on Facebook and 16% of Brazil’s (compared to 49% of America’s population or 47% of the UK’s population) countries such as these will clearly contribute heavily to Facebook’s continued growth.”
To put Facebook’s size in perspective, Twitter now claims about 100 million active users, LinkedIn has 130 million members and Google+ had around 49 million total visits in December, according to Experian Hitwise. That researcher predicts Google+ will have 400 million users by the end of this year.
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